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Welcome to the Markets and Economic Update, provided by the Hancock Whitney Asset Management team as an informational resource for clients and individuals who are interested in hearing our perspectives on current economic issues.
Paul Teten starts with a review of third quarter Real GDP, at 1.9% in the quarter and up 2.0% from a year ago, at the low end of our expected 2.0-2.5% growth trend for this year. Near-term signals are mixed and indicative of modest growth, and we are lowering our RGDP trend expectations going forward to a 1.5-2.0% range. Recession risk remains low in the U.S.
Jeff Tanguis discusses the shift in policy coming out of the Fed’s recent October meeting. After lowering interest rates in the past three consecutive meetings the Fed is now signaling it has completed its “mid cycle adjustment” in policy. Jeff then discusses the impact this change in policy will likely have on the yield curve, corporate bonds and investor attitudes.
The call continues with Martin Siera's discussion of the stock market, including October results, international markets, and our current expectations for the near term. The S&P 500 is up 8% since an early August selloff, but mid and small cap stocks continue to lag.
Finally, Richard Chauvin wraps things up with a discussion of the prospects for a Phase 1, or “skinny,” trade deal with China, including the key elements of the negotiations. He then discusses the likelihood of Congress ratifying the US/Mexico/Canada Agreement, and brings us up to date on the long-running Brexit saga, which may still have some surprises in store before year-end.
Click the "play" arrow below to listen to the recorded session and learn more:
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