Markets & Economic Update for September 2025: Are there signals of a slowdown?
Hancock Whitney Asset Management Team discusses the economic and financial events shaping the market.
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Hancock Whitney Asset Management
September 12, 2025 |
Each month, senior leaders from the Hancock Whitney Asset Management team host a webcast to provide clients with valuable insight into the economic and financial events shaping the markets. These discussions are designed to help listeners understand the forces behind recent market movements, analyze emerging trends, and assess the implications of current data and policy developments. From employment and inflation to central bank decisions and market performance, the team offers an informed perspective on what’s happened—and what might come next. The full webcast recording is available for those who want to hear the conversation in greater depth.
Watch the September 2025 Markets and Economic Outlook Webinar
Highlights from the September Webcast:
- Employment: A Clear Signal of Weakness
- U.S. job growth has essentially stalled, with August's nonfarm payrolls showing a near-zero increase of just 22,000 jobs.
- The preliminary annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls revealed a record downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs in the 12 months ending in March, reflecting correction of overly optimistic modeling assumptions on net business formation in the period, consistent with the slowdown in GDP growth since last year.
- The sharp slowing in jobs growth since March reflects disruptions to the U.S. economy from supply chain shocks related to tariff implementation and shrinkage in the foreign born labor force from immigration enforcement policies.
- Labor utilization rates (aggregate hours worked) in the August payrolls report point to a stagnant economy in the second half, however labor productivity growth should suffice to produce real GDP growth around 1%, a substantial cooling in the U.S. economy since last year.
- Federal Reserve: Pivoting Toward Easing
- Weaker labor data and slowing growth have shifted the Fed's focus away from inflation control toward economic support.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to rate cuts at Jackson Hole, and markets now anticipate up to three cuts before year-end.
- Additional cuts could follow in 2026 if the economic slowdown persists.
- Bond Market: August Delivered Strong Returns
- Intermediate-term bonds gained over 1% for the month, driven by falling short-term yields and growing recession concerns.
- The long end of the yield curve remained flat due to global policy uncertainty, but the bond rally appears to be gaining momentum.
- Equity Markets: Resilient Yet Vulnerable
- The S&P 500 gained ~2% in August, though the pace of gains is slowing and rotation into small-cap value stocks is notable.
- Markets have largely shrugged off rising risks, including tariffs and economic slowdown, but valuations remain elevated and vulnerable to downside surprises.
- Policy and Political Landscape: Heightened Uncertainty
- Ongoing tariff adjustments, Supreme Court rulings on trade policy, and questions about executive authority are creating an unpredictable environment.
- Potential government shutdown looms with a September 30 deadline and limited legislative days remaining.
- Emerging industrial policy includes the U.S. government taking equity stakes in companies like Intel, raising questions about the future role of government in private enterprise.
Be sure to listen to the full recording of the webcast to hear how our investment leadership team breaks down these developments and what they could mean for portfolios going forward.
Disciplined investing is more important now than ever.
Our Asset Management team at Hancock Whitney is ready to help you align your portfolio to weather uncertainty and pursue long-term goals. Contact your Private Banker today.
The information, views, opinions, and positions expressed by the author(s), presenter(s), and/or presented in the article are those of the author or individual who made the statement and do not necessarily reflect the policies, views, opinions, and positions of Hancock Whitney Bank. Hancock Whitney makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or validity of any information presented.
This information is general in nature and is provided for educational purposes only. Information provided and statements made should not be relied on or interpreted as accounting, financial planning, investment, legal, or tax advice. Hancock Whitney Bank encourages you to consult a professional for advice applicable to your specific situation.
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